Transcript

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Announcer:
Welcome to The Podcast to be Named Later, where we explore the world a conversation at a time.  Sit back and enjoy.  Here are your hosts, Chris and Kelly.

Kelly:
Hello everyone and welcome to another episode of the podcast to be named later. After a bit of summer vacation and time off back here with Chris Chris, how are you doing out there in California? A little warm. Out there, yeah.
Chris:
It's hot everywhere out here on the West, man, so I don't know how it is where you are, but we've been for all that rain we had for a few months to start the year. So we're getting paid back with with some pretty gnarly heat.
Kelly:
Yeah, we're definitely getting the heat too. And Speaking of things, getting hot and heating up NFL season and fantasy football definitely gearing up. I know our own draft is in a little over 3 weeks and starting to think about that and we thought we'd kind of tip off the NFL season with a little primer. In education on fantasy. Well, Chris, you're certainly more of an expert on this than I am. I'll readily admit that I've typically finished in the bottom half of our league most years, couple of years I got in there in the playoffs, but more often than not, I think I'm in the I'm a middle of the road guy, so. Looking for you to educate us all a bit. Let's let's dive in.
Chris:
Let's do it, man. I'm ready. I'm geek. This is. This is my wheelhouse, buddy. So yeah. Anyone who listens. He dabbles in fantasy football or maybe wants to, you know, see what else is out there. If if you know we can help them kind of understand what the different options are. I mean, what's beautiful? So fantasy football has been around for decades at this point and it's really hit mainstream over the last 20 years. And then it's only grown year after year. After year, right. And so especially over the last. And I'd say the majority of people who are football fans have at least tried fantasy football at some point or in some capacity. And I'd love to kind of describe what the different leagues and options and just there's a lot of ways to be involved of depending on your comfort level depending on how much you want to invest. You literally can get in for as cheap as a dollar and but still play for money. You can. There's dynasty leagues and keeper leagues and all kinds. Of stuff so. Where do you want to start?
Kelly:
Let's let's start with give me an overview and before we started recording you. You told me something that blew my mind. So kind of break down the different leagues. And then you told me you've already done 60 drafts like. Tell us what that's all about and justice, what are the different kind of leagues? I know there's keeper dynasty, PPR options. Just give us about a few minutes on the different kind of leaks.
Chris:
All right, so the so I have, I've done AA60 Jeffs already and I'm currently in process with about a dozen. So these are done I do mine on underdog, I've done them there was a draft app before. FanDuel offers options and so you can find a platform, depending on what your comfort level is and and how much you want to play for. You know almost anywhere. So the dress that I've been doing have all been or mostly been slow drafts, meaning usually. You'll get like. 8 to 10 hours per pick per person, so it's not like you have to sit down and be available for two hours to. Do a draft. You just pick when it's your turn, your phone will notify you. Hey, it's your turn, and then you got 10 hours to make your decision on your guy. Then it goes to the next guy. He gets 10 hours and so on, and most guys tend to pick pretty quick. They get their notification. They look through three or four guys and then they make a selection and the drafts move along. But I'll run. Anywhere from like 5 to 15 of them at at the same time, so I might be in around 12 and this one I might be in round eight in this other. One and I might be just starting out in like round one or two and and and a couple over here, right. And so I just kind of always have them run in and what I have done for the last few years is I do a lot of like $1.00 three dollar drafts to start with in July. Then I'm moving to like some 5 and $10 drafts, you know? And once I start feeling out, like, hey, what if I go, you know, running back, running back, running back, can I feel the team? What if I take a quarterback early? Do I like my team, you know? And so I kind of play with different draft strategies. Over the course of, you know, mid to late July and then around August we start to get more information. Teams have reported to camp now, so you know, as we go through August and start approaching the season, there's a lot more information, you know who the the wide receiver to on a team is going to be is a little clearer. You know who, you know what the running back rolls are going to be a little clearer. There's actual quarterback battles going on, you know, in Tampa, there's. No guarantee that Mayfield holds that Trask is kind of nipping at his heels. And then there's a couple of others that you know, you have presumed starters. You got Purdy coming back from injury. Is he going to be ready? Who's going to be the starter? Things like that. So as you start to get towards late August, a lot of. This dust settles. If someone sustained the injury and camp, you know that information. Will be available to you. These leagues are are best ball leagues, though Kelly and what best ball means is you. You typically draft a much deeper roster, so it might be anywhere from 18 to to 2223 guys, but you never get to pick anyone up off the waiver wire or whoever you draft. That is your team and they have to make it through the whole season. So if a guy. That's her tears, his ACL's out for the year. That's it. You don't get to release them. There's no IR. And what the sites do is field your roster for you. So let's say you start one quarterback, 2 running back three wide receivers, a tight end and maybe a couple flexes. That's kind of a typical Ross. Some sites have kickers and defenses as well, but. Kickers are really rare. And then each week you may have two or three quarterbacks on your team. Whichever quarterback scores the most points, the site automatically makes that your starter of your five or six running drafts you drafted. Whoever scored the most will be running back one. Whoever scored the second most will be running back 2, and so on and so forth. And so you there's no management. You have to decide who to start. Every week, there's no way I can manage 60 plus teams. Last year I did. Like 225 teams that I drafted, there's no way I'm going to go on the waiver wire for for 225 teams and try and figure out who to pick up and and you know who to start and all of that man, that's that. I can't. I just. That'd be impossible.
Kelly:
So with these kind of leagues, who would you say are the main players that offer those kind of leagues?
Chris:
As far as sights, FanDuel underdog is a great one. I forget what it's called. 10s, Something 10s and then FPC is is a big like governing body. They have leagues all the way up to, you know, $1600 buying. I actually I haven't been on that one in a few years and so it might, they might have $10,000 buy in leagues. As far as I know. At this point, so I mean literally man, if you want to play for a dollar, you you can buy in for a dollar and play against ten other guys and your price will be 10 bucks. Well, it'll be 9. The sites take generally. Standard is 10%, so that's their. That's their standard rage usually. All all of the. Leagues 10% of the money will go to the the site hosting it, and then you'll play for the other 90%. You know, payout for second, third or something, right?
Kelly:
Alright, well, maybe I'll.
Chris:
Yeah. The underdog is a good one if you want to get started, that's a real easy one. They have fast drafts, 32nd clocks. So and then they have leagues that have three people, six people, 10 people, 12 people, and then they have tournaments that are a whole another game.
Kelly:
So I'll actually for listeners at some point before the football season starts, maybe I'll go check out the accessibility of a couple of these, our own family League uses Yahoo's fantasy football that is fairly accessible. I've never used these other ones, but I might check a couple out.
Chris:
Yeah, and I'll help you out with that. You'll find a few that I've used in the past. So underdog, I was on last year, I kind of rotate around, you know, and then you know, depending on how they pay out and you know, I just feel it out. Man, you know, sometimes you get 20 guys, sometimes some sites only let you pick 18 and you know, throughout the years, I've kind of tried different places and and. Underdog seems to be the one I like.
Kelly:
The best right now. So we've got kind of a best ball and still where you're doing some drafting. Can you go through some of the other things like a keeper league, a dynasty league? What are the different kind of scorings? I know there's like PPR points per reception leagues somewhere. That's true and some not. Before we dive into the players and strategies, just give a little more of the groundwork of where what you have options for as far as leagues and kind of general principles. On scoring.
Chris:
So I'll tell you, I'll start with the draft. So generally there are two means of drafting. Either you do an auction draft or you do a snake draft. Both have pros and cons. I mean for me if it's a league you care about, auction is the only way to to go. It's the only fair way to go, but for logistical reasons reasons it's it's more challenging and so I understand why a lot of sites don't offer that. It's just a lot more moving parts to try and perform an auction. I know our Family League has done auction for a long time and I I just couldn't imagine doing it the other way, but it that's a lot smaller group. You know it's it's, it's, it's all family. And so it's different, right? So we we have that flexibility. If you're doing a auction draft and it's pretty simple, you nominate a player and whoever's willing to spend the most gets them, and then you have a budget that's pre established. Could be 203 hundred, 100, whatever your league determines and you have to feel an entire roster, so you have to save a dollar. For for every position, right? So you can't just draft 9 guys, you have to draft all 16 or what? Or whatever you're, you know, you have set up in your league. And so there's Max bids. You know, in our league, I think the maximum bid you could do is $185 and then you could spend 15 on the rest to fill your 10. Generally guys won't do that. They might spend, you know, 50 or 60 on a couple of guys and then spread the money around a little bit more. But that's how an auction works. And then when the bidding stops, then whoever has, you know, the largest bid will will win that player and then he'll come off the board and he'll belong to to that team with the snake. You you know, so you draw out of a hat or or a pick randomizer or whatever. Somehow you determined a draft order. I know some leagues will do like, say, reverse order of how you finished last year. Maybe that's that's. Common and then first guy picks second. So on so on and then usually once you get to the end of a round, that player will make a double pick that that player will start the next round. That's kind of why it's called a snake draft. So pick through round one and whoever had the 12th pick. Would then get the 13th pick, which would be the first pick of the second round, and then you go back and then and so on and you go all the way down through. You know, 1516 rounds or whatever, whatever you predetermined.
Kelly:
So I've got my drafts structured out now. What are these different leagues like keeper PPR dynasty?
Chris:
So the scoring is determined generally by the Commissioner or a a committee, or a vote or whatever.
Kelly:
Ohh wait, here it is.
Chris:
I think it's most efficient. I think it's most well. You're the Commissioner of your league and which you've done a fantastic job of, by the way, Sir.
Kelly:
Can I? So if the scoring is determined by me, does that mean I can score?
Chris:
I want you get to pick the scoring settings. You don't have the although you you have the power to change scores throughout the year if you want, but the league wouldn't last long if if you had a Commissioner that was changing changing settings throughout the year. So generally you predetermine the settings.
Kelly:
One of my brothers are bigger than me.
Chris:
So like you were saying.
Kelly:
Lot of my older brother.
Speaker
Go ahead.
Kelly:
Lot of my older brothers are bigger than me so. Probably not gonna monkey with.
Chris:
That no, they they wouldn't stand for that for for very long at all. So generally, you predetermine the scoring, right? So if it's PPR that means like you said, point per reception. So every time you catch a ball then you get a point no matter if you lost yards or whatever happened, you you, you get one point just for catching it. Good job. And then usually there's there's yardage for every position, you know, running backs, wide receivers, you usually is one point for every 10 yards. That's the most common setting. And then quarterbacks range anywhere from one point for 25 yards. To you know, 1.450 somewhere in that range is is the most common, and then you get points for touchdowns and two point conversions, minus points for fumbles and interceptions, things like that. See. So all sites have basically like toggles, you know, you you click on a specific like touchdown. How many points do you want it to be and then you can determine whether you want it to be. You know, six is the standard. Almost everybody uses it, but you can change it if you want. The touchdown could be worth 10 if. You want it to be OK.
Kelly:
I'm going to propose a rule this year. Touchstones are eight points for Kelly and six for everybody else.
Chris:
Good luck. So good luck. Like you said, a lot of your brothers are are quite a bit bigger than you.
Kelly:
Bring that up at our meeting.
Chris:
And I don't think you're going to slide that. By him, buddy. But although like you said, man. I mean you can use it so maybe they wouldn't be that opposed. Keep you competitive.
Kelly:
I'll try it. Ohh there you go.
Chris:
So then the different leagues, OK, so that's your settings, right? So and based on your settings that's going to make? So I'll give you an example, man. Sometimes like we do, we have a smaller league, so we use a super flex. We don't want and we have a lot of flex positions as well. So because we only have. Eight players in our league, the Seven Brothers and and myself. We we have a lot of good players that are left over. We have like tremendous talent on our bench. We have. There's good guys on the waiver wire. There's just a lot of guys we don't end up picking. And so to help counteract that, what we've evolved into over the years, it's just bigger rosters and and one of the things I highly recommend if you're starting a league. If you have 10 players or less, set your league up in a fashion where two player 2 quarterbacks can. Started so that it's just that way you're using them. They're out there. It's, it's. It's too bad to waste them, right? So if there's 32 starting quarterbacks on a given week, you know you don't want to use just ten of them, you know, set your league up in a manner that would allow you to use, you know, 20 of them. And Super Flex is a great way to do that. Super Flex just means you can use a quarterback. Running back, wide receiver or tight end in that spot and most guys would opt for the quarterback because they're generally the higher scoring. But you know, for whatever reason, you've got some bye week issues or or an injury or something. Sometimes managing your team throughout the season can be. Difficult with the Super flexing of 4G, the ability that if you don't have two quarterbacks to play in a given week, at least you don't take a zero, you can. You can put a running back in there and at least get something.
Kelly:
OK, so we got we got the PPR and a keeper league. I know we're going into that this year. I guess from last year where we made a rule for the first time a guy can keep a player from his team last year for. I mean, we set a price and all that in this auction thing. So that's our first time with that. So I think that's pretty straightforward where you can pick certain number you know of players to keep from year to year. I see both good and bad to that good. I mean, you found the guy and he did well for you. The bad. You know, makes good players harder to come by sometimes or a little bit of locking them up. So what's this thing about a dynasty league?
Chris:
So basically the difference between keepers and dynasties are conceptually similar. It's you get to carry over players from last year's roster. So if you had him on your team last year, you he gets to be on your team this year. No one else can have him a keeper. League is generally somewhere between 1:00 and. Let's say like 5 players. Maybe if you're if you're keeping maybe even maybe 6. So if you're keeping a portion of your of your. Mr. A a small portion, then, that would be considered a keeper league. You know, it's usually 123 players and then sometimes you just get to keep them and that's all there is to it. Other times, leagues will set up a cost, so if you're keeping a guy that might be your first round pick, you don't get a first round pick. If you keep in two guys, you don't get a first order a second. Those, those are your first two picks and you don't pick until the third round. In our case. Well, we set up was because we're an auction. You are going to have to pay the auction price that you paid last year, plus 50% annually up up charge. And what that does is so if you got a guy for a buck. You know, you took a flyer on a player and and you got him at the end of the draft and you got him for a buck and he turned out to be a home run. Well, now you get to keep him for the rest of time. If if you don't have some type of penalty associated with him. So the 50% upcharge you? Know times the guy out eventually. Now if you got him for a buck, it's going to take a long time to time him out. I mean, you're you're going to keep him for probably the majority of his career, but but if you pay 10 bucks for a guy, let's say, and he's, you know, a $30 player and you got lucky, you got him for cheap, then you know, next year he'll cost you 15. And then the year after that, it'll cost you 23 and then the year after that, it'll cost you 35 or whatever. Right. Eventually it's like, OK, you know, he's too expensive. Now, you know, once he gets up around 50 sixty $80.00 you're not gonna keep him anymore. And that allows him to come back into the player pool for everyone else to have a crack at. So I like the way we set it up. I think it's fair if you if you hit a home run on a real cheap guy, you get to keep him for, you know, four or five years. And even if you got a guy at a discount, but he's clearly better than what you paid, then at least you get to keep him for two or three years. You know, good job getting, doing a good job at the draft in 2021.
Kelly:
And so, as a dynasty league more where you can keep your whole team.
Chris:
If you want, yeah. Most dynasties you. Keep your entire roster. Or, at a minimum of really large portion of your roster, I'd say over half I I don't know. Actually, I'm not in the industry, you know. But I think everyone knows I'm in roofing so, but I am pretty knowledgeable about fantasy. I don't know what the cutoff is. I you know, I've never looked up in a dictionary or anything to to find out the the specific cutoff. But essentially, a dynasty. You're keeping your whole team, and then what you do each year is just draft. So you have what's called a rookie draft. So all the incoming talent that that graduated. Or or or came out into the NFL draft and was picked up, the Bijan Robinsons and Jackson Jackson Smith and Jig Buzz. And you know, all all the young talent that's coming out this year, you would have a rookie draft usually like 3 rounds is the common and then what you'd have to do is drop three players from last year's team in order to make room for these onco. And rookies, but essentially, you keep everybody at no penalty. It doesn't cost you anything, you just you just keep your whole roster from last year and. That would be a dynasty league.
Kelly:
I'm just curious if you know I I mean I'm always looking for variations, especially with some of the stuff in the NFL, right where I mean, they obviously have a salary cap, be interesting to see a Fantasy Football League that was somehow tied to, I mean, auction draft is a little bit, but we're. You who you picked was tied to their salary impact on a team. You know, like if you pick a quarterback, just use Aaron Rodgers. You know where you had this really high cap number where? That's how it's actually going to impact your fantasy team. It would just be an interesting.
Chris:
Wrinkle that would be really interesting. I've never even thought of that or heard of that, but I mean, even just getting that information would be like pretty labor. Some, I mean, you could find it, it's available, but that would be actually really interesting. So now when when you got the. You know the quarterback on the rookie deal like, you know, like, say, a guy like Joe Burrow, who who actually some information came out about yesterday. So hopefully he's OK, but he's carted off the field yesterday, but.
Kelly:
Yeah, hip injury, they said.
Chris:
Yeah, I think he's going to be alright. Hopefully, but he's on a rookie deal, right? So you know. Yeah, I want Joe Burrow same as the NFL team, right? Like all NFL teams. That seems to be the model over the last 10 years or so. Build a really solid team. You look at what the Philadelphia Eagles did last year with having you know all this amazing offensive line play and their defense was stacked and they had all those cornerbacks that they picked up and and the team was just stacked and then they had an MVP caliber quarterback who who is getting paid. You know close to league minimum and. You know, that's a really good way to win a Super Bowl is have a whole bunch of talented people, including your quarterback, but he hasn't gotten paid yet, you know, and that's why, you know, there's usually only, like, a year or two window that you can get away with that.
Kelly:
Well, and that's why I'm we'll maybe we'll get into this in a different episode, but I mean, it's really common. It does have fantasy football implications and I guess we'll transition into talking about positions and you can and at least give us some of your thoughts. But the running back position in the NFL. Certainly evolved. And I mean we've seen it this year with guys, you know, expressing frustration about the. It's probably one of the more. Awkward things in my mind of how teams are formed in that right. I mean, running backs want to get paid, but the numbers often say you know the better performance you've had in the past, the less likely you're going to repeat that in the future. And so that's, you know, that's the fundamental disconnect we see going on.
Chris:
Well and and yeah, and it's problematic, man. It's, it's, it's it's not fair. It's not right. Running backs take the most abuse of any position in the National Football League and as as such you just know their life expectancy expectancy in the league is the is the least and with the way it's set up right now it's not the team's fault. Like, why would you you know, so you're gonna. You're gonna get a running back for if you drafted him in the 4th, 4th or first round, you're gonna get him for five years plus with franchise tags, you're gonna get him for six. Well, that you know, even a good running back. I mean, unless you're like Frank or something, you're you. You know, that's it. You're you're already done. So now you've never. You haven't made hardly any any. Well, we gotta keep this in perspective. You've made a lot of money, but relative to to the rest of the NFL players, you have not. And so you have. The shortest career. You've used all your prime years up when you weren't. Able to get paid because you are under your rookie contract. And when the time comes where everyone else gets paid, you know that defensive end and and that offensive tackle and the quarterback and the wide receiver, they're all getting fat contracts and you're just getting cast in into the trash can and like and. And you don't get paid. And I don't blame the team, because why would you cause you can go draft another rookie who's just as good as this. Right or very comparable for for cheap. You know? Why would I pay this guy the $15 million a year he deserves when I can get? 87% return with this rookie guy coming out of Alabama. You know what I mean? I'm going to get basically the same player for, you know, a tenth of the cost. Like, why would you pay all that money? What the NFL needs to do, and it's not that hard to to. Do we do this in everything else, man? I mean, the US Women's national team for. They fought a hard battle man for equal pay and and rightfully so, and and they got it, and they deserve it. And they deserved it a long time ago. They've been the much bigger rather than the men's team for years, and yet they were paid less and and and worse accommodations. And it was wrong, man. It was wrong. And you know, they they fought. Hard to get some equality. Well, I don't see why it'd be so weird to set up a mechanism in the NFL that accommodates the the. Running back position better. They take the most abuse, they limp the most when they're older and they make the least money. It's not fair. So if you recognize a problem, address it, and maybe NFL, maybe running backs get to your contracts coming out or maybe running backs have more ability. On their end to opt out of their deal, right? So as opposed to the team being in control or they have a larger minimum owed to them. You know, if you're gonna play the running back position in the National Football League, there's a lot of smart people that run the league. We all know there's a problem, so why don't you guys work on fixing it? Come up with a plan that that allows these guys to make a higher level of income because there's no doubt that a running back on a football team as far as the offense go other than the quarterback. I mean, you can make arguments for tackles in line and you know. All kinds of. Stuff the the running back is as key a component. As anybody outside of the quarterback, probably.
Kelly:
Well, and the other thing to keep in mind about most running backs like to. To get to that level to be a high or any draft pick in the NFL as a running back, in all likelihood, you've already put two to three years of college, you know, heavy work on your body. If I look at a guy that's, you know, going through this right now with the Colts, I mean Jonathan Taylor. Right. He played for three years here at Wisconsin, and I I don't know the total number of plays, but it was often tailored to the left, tailored to the right tailor up the middle. I mean, you know, riding 50 plays a game.
Chris:
Yeah, and that's exactly it. And and it's not just the sheer number of carries. They're asked to stand still and have a guy who outweighs them by 50 pounds run full speed at them and you're expected to block them, either get down low and chip them. You know, you're expected to to stand there and pass protection. You know you don't have. You're the absorber, right? So this guy got an 8 yard head start. He's blistered, he's blitzing up the middle from the middle linebacker position. He started at the 21 yard line and I got to just stand still at the 15 and wait for him. You know what I mean? And then he gets to smash into me. And so that's that's not even counting carrying the ball and. Catching the ball and all the other things you do and and the the wear and tear of the cutting. You know, you gotta move side to side. So what receiver runs a nine route which like it's just like a a go deep pattern, you know fly pattern. He's just running, man. You know what I mean? He might make a couple of moves early on. He might. He might, you know, shimmy, his hips a little bit at the line of scrimmage to get some separation, but then he's just doing a Sprint. The running backs are asked to go side to side and then generate power and then and and they're getting hit by 3-4 or five guys on every single time they have the ball and and then put all the bodies pile on top of them when they're done. They take a beating, man, and so they should be compensated. I, in my mind, it's it's not even really debatable, but I'm a little biased. I played running back. And so, you know you're you're asked to take a a a lot of punishment on behalf of the team. It seems reasonable that you should be. Comparable to to the rest of.
Kelly:
The guys I'd like to see the NFL and, you know, we'll, we'll we'll move on from this for right now. But I would like to see them do something different. And I hope whenever they, you know, they they made this long term. Collective bargaining agreement. But I hope the next one can have some people that are looking out a little more for. More players because this really is, this situation isn't going to go away and nobody's wrong, you know, but they have very different goals in in this situation today.
Chris:
Yeah, I agree, man. And and I I'm I'm not blaming the teams. I'm not blaming you know. It is what it is. But I think you know, all of us in the sports world, the NFL themselves, you, you got to recognize that that there's a problem. And I think it's on each individual person, man, it's there. It's your responsibility. When you recognize something isn't right. You you have to try and make some efforts to to fix it and you know no fault to you. I I realized you just you just recently realized it's a problem, so no problem. We're gonna hold any of the old stuff against you, but you gotta know now. It is man. So let's let's dude you were nimble on your feet when there was COVID. You know, there's been many, many, many times when the when the NFL. And rules in place and and then something new came up. And it's like, oh, well, we have to change this. You know when Tom Brady got his knee blowing out and all of a sudden you can't hit below the knees on the quarterback cause this is bad for the NFL. You know, and that was long time ago and nobody had a problem with it. I think if they made some alterations to, you know, how running backs are compensated or what their contracts look like, I I I think there's a way to to find a remedy.
Kelly:
Well, Speaking of being nimble and on your feet and learning, let's dive in. Let's start with that position. What are? What are your thoughts, Chris? And let me take my notes so I can.
Chris:
So I told you before we started, before you hit the record button. You know, I I had some hesitation initially because I am in a draft with you and it's an auction draft, you know.
Speaker 3
Like I thought about.
Chris:
It I'm like, oh, man, I'm just setting myself up. So I start talking good about a few guys. But you know, they're gonna know who I have my eyes on. But at the end of the day, I I, you know, I want to put good content in this podcast, and I'm going to be open and honest. So hopefully you and your brothers don't hold it against me. When when draft day comes. What I thought maybe is we could break this down, Kelly kind of into, you know, the cream of the crop, you know, in a position by position basis. So if you want to start with running back, we could we could start with the top tier and then a couple of maybe breakout candidates and then and then some of the young Flyers.
Kelly:
Yeah, let's, let's. Let's go there, man.
Chris:
You know that that could. Find themselves in a position like you know, late round pick kind of guys.
Kelly:
You take it away and I'm just getting my notebook out.
Chris:
So so here we'll start at. The running back position not on the high end, so I'm going to pull up, give me one second. I'm going to pull up ADP for this is on underdog where where the running backs are going, the order in which they're going currently and stand by. I know Mccaffrey's number one eckler's going second. So right now based on ADP, Christian McCaffrey would be the running back one. What that means is he's the the based on average draft position, that's a DP is average draft position doesn't mean he's the first running that taken all the time. But when you average it all out, he is more often than not the first often or the first one taken. SO80P right now goes McCaffrey Eckler and then kind of interesting #3 is B John Robinson. So you know, I think we know who Christian McCaffrey is. He's amazing on a points per game basis. I mean, he's one of the best running backs. All time. So the downside with McCaffrey is he he, you know, he isn't always available, but when he is healthy and playing, he's as good as it gets in terms of fantasy football. He can catch the ball, he scores touchdowns. He does everything you could want a running back. Do downside is is availability. Sometimes it has come in question in the past. The one that's interesting to me is Bijan. So he's a a rookie running back out of Texas all world running back, you know, in terms of measurables, he's he's on par with the, you know, Herschel Walkers and. Saquan Barkley more recently and and you know the Jonathan Taylors, you know, the guys coming out of college who look like they can't miss. These are clearly NFL caliber running backs. And BJ's in that mold. You know, he just checks all the boxes he can catch. He can pass block, he's got power, he's got speed, he's got vision. You can think of him of very similar to like Nick Chubb, who's one of one of the best running backs in the NFL. You know, there's so many intricacies to the running back position about body position and vision is a hard thing to measure, like you can't time vision, you can't, you can't measure it at a combine. You have to see it on film. And the ability of a running if you think of like like Marcus Allen was one of the greatest of all time and never that dude never got hit square. He was always great about falling forward. He always got an extra yard and a half to two yards at the end of every play just because he fell the right way and and and his head was pointed forward at the end of every run. And anytime someone it looked like someone had them squared up and and was gonna really like, you know, hit him square. In the chest. He found a way to just like kind of wiggle to the side and and and. And you graze across them. And when you're in an open field or we trying to find holes, the vision being able to recognize the speed at which guys are coming at you from various angles and understanding like, OK, if I go right here and then plant and go left, then he should miss me on the left and he should miss me on the right. And and so on. And that's something that BJ's phenomenal at in addition to the ability to break tackles. But but he just has incredible vision. Like I guess to think of Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb is another one who's got speed and power, but really his greatest a lot of guys can hit hard to run fast, but they don't optimize it on a play by play basis. The vision is what gives you the ability to optimize your power and your speed and puts you in the best position to use them. So he's a really interesting one.
Kelly:
So under understanding that there is no right or wrong answer but.
Chris:
I love Nick Chubb.
Kelly:
How do you balance Chris when you're looking down all these players? And so you got a known commodity like Christian McCaffrey with some downside risk, but you know. How do you decide between that and you know, the unknown rookie who looks like he might have all the potential, anything that goes through your mind when you're sitting there waiting to? Make a call.
Chris:
Well, I can tell you my my general, I don't know what the word would be draft strategy I guess or or just my the way I go about. So I'm fielding A-Team. I want I'm. I'm making a roster. Then I need to to try and get me through the season and win me a championship. So you need guys who have a high upside who can score a lot of points. And you can't just take all the safe picks and and win a championship. You can do that and and make the playoffs, but you need some guys with some upside that can get you a 3540 point week. And So what I do is try to balance. Some of the known commodity right, so I I don't want a whole team full of DK metcalfs let's say or the the poster child was DeSean Jackson. You know, he could score you 40 and then and then get you 2 for the next two weeks and then he scores you 40 and then get you 2 for the next two weeks and, you know, having a guy like that on your team is OK. But you can't have a whole team of those guys, right? Because they're gonna have too many. Eggs, you know. And then you have the other poster child would be like Larry Fitzgerald. Larry Fitzgerald catches 7 balls for 80 yards every single week. And then, you know, he sprinkles in a few touchdowns throughout the year. So he gets you like 15 points every single week and occasionally might be like, 2021 if he catches the touchdown very steady, his ceiling is pretty low. He's never gonna get you 40, but he's also never gonna get you a 0. And So what I try to do? As I'm going through a draft is pick up a handful of like, steady eddies, guys who I know are are B minus players, but I know they're gonna give me a B minus every time. They're never gonna fail a test, and they're never gonna get an A. But they're gonna get me, you know, B minus regularly. And then I'll sprinkle in a few of the guys who can get an A + a guy, you know your. Your DK Metcalf types your your your home run hitting kind of guys this year would be a guy like Jamar Jamar Gibbs or Jamier Gibbs from Alabama. Fast man, I mean, could take a ball from from the 1 yard line to the to the end zone, all 99 yards. Nobody can catch them, you know, but also. Lacks some of the consistency his his, his place on the team, you know? Still, he's a rookie as well, so it's hard to say exactly how many carries he's going to get. He's not going to be a 18 to 20 carry guy, so his performances are going to be kind of sporadic, but definitely capable of a big number. And so, you know, if I was going to build a team, I'd want a guy. Like Dijon or you know, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, that type, Derrick Henry, you know, I know they got a nice high floor and then I might have for my running back to a guy with some some like, you know, highs and lows. And then I try to do it that way. I don't take each each pick in a vacuum because I don't want to end up with a bunch of plotters and and like, you know, no excitement, guys, right? No upside, guys, no ceiling. And I and I also don't wanna get a bunch of guys that are all over the map. I want I want to have a little a mix of the two of them and then hopefully with that you have a team that can contend. You know, for for actually winning the championship.
Kelly:
So, at least in my experience. Even most of the rankings of fantasy players like they'll show you the points the guy got. You know, for all of us here. But you really got to dig in a little bit and study each game if you want to understand if the guy is, you know, the steady Yeti or the high and low.
Chris:
Well, and and I mean. On a high level, so we we do our fan, our Family League mostly for fun, right and and you know it's fun we get together, we tease each other and and we pick our teams and then we play against each other and stuff. But if if you're doing it a little more high stakes or or if you have a lot more leagues, then then yeah, you you absolutely have to do. Or research man. Because, you know, if you just look at, like, how many fantasy points did the guy score last year? OK, well, you know what's? DeAndre Hopkins out for eight games and he scored all his points while Hopkins was gone. Well, now Hopkins is back. Hopkins is a bad example because he moved teams. But you know what I'm saying? Like, you know, if Tee Higgins scored all of his fantasy points while Jamar Chase was hurt, well, now you're banking for T Higgins to be the same. Yeah, you're banking on Jamar chase to get hurt again. You know what I mean? That that was what made him good. Or like from a running back position you know did was he afforded an opportunity? Did the scheme change? You know, did the offensive line change? There's so many moving parts that you have to take into consideration and a lot of it is guesswork. You know, you're just guessing. But uh, you know there are. Schemes that are set up and if a new offensive order quarter new offensive coordinator comes in like Minnesota, is a prime example. So they were a run heavy team built on defense run, heavy run, heavy run heavy. Last year they switched and decided that they were going to throw the ball quite a bit more, which was fine for Dalvin Cook. Because he can catch the ball. So it really didn't hurt his fantasy ball. Because he just, you know, he just switched from carrying the ball more and and he just caught it more often. But for a guy like Justin Jefferson, that was a huge difference. You know, he was really good as his first or rookie year. But last year he was unbelievable and well, if if the team plans on throwing the ball 180 more times this year. And they did last year. Well, that that affects the quarterback, the the wide receivers, the tight ends, the running back, everybody. And you have to take that into consider.
Kelly:
So Speaking of taking into consideration, you got any sleeper candidates you're looking at for running back from what you've done so far?
Chris:
Well, it depends on what your risk level is or you know or or what you want to gamble on. But a guy like James Cook should slide into Devin Singletary, left, I think Buffalo. I think we all know that they're one of the most high-powered offenses in the league. I I think we all. Anticipate they'll score a ton of points, but. That the running back position at in Buffalo is always going to be a little weird with with Josh Allen being in there. If if it's first and goal at the two yard line, like who do you got that's better than Josh Allen? You know what I mean? Like, why wouldn't you run Josh Allen? You want to get a touchdown, right? So why would we even gamble handing it to the running back when Josh Allen can just go do it at a 85%? The success rate and so that hurts touchdowns. But with the core of running backs that they have there unless they pair the brothers together and bring Dalvin in or something unless they do something like that or Leonard for an ad or Ezekiel Elliott that's available. If they just roll with Damian Harris and James Cook, I think it's pretty easy to see what their roles will be. You know Damien Harris is bigger, stronger will probably be the goal line back and handle a lot of the B team between the tackle running and then James Cook should get the ball in space quite a bit more. Some carries I think you know, somewhere around 889 carries a game, something like that, maybe 10 and then he'll catch, you know, four or five balls. I think so. He's the guy that I like, man. He's a flyer. He's gonna be one of those high, you know, high ceiling, low floor kind of guys, though, you know, he could easily have a game where he gets you five points and then next week might get you 35. So he's definitely, like kind of a a mid a mid round, you know middle middle of the pack running back kind of guy. I already mentioned Jamir Gibbs, the guy that I think has a lot of upside this year is really undervalued. There's two really Nadia Harris and Joe Mixon. Assuming Joe Mixon doesn't have. Have you know any ramifications from like waving guns around at stop signs and and doing stupid stuff in the in the offseason, assuming he is the starting running back for the Bengals, I think we assume that the Bengals are also going to be a really high, high scoring offense. There's going to be a lot of it's going to be a big pie. You know, there's a lot of mouths to feed. They they have an incredible passing game, but. They should score a lot of touchdowns, man. So if Joe Mixon's the tailback for that team, you can anticipate him scoring quite a bit of points this year and he's pretty cheap, man in terms of ADP. So and then the other one is Najee Harris, who is a workhorse kind of back in Pittsburgh and. You know, by all accounts seems like they improved the offensive line. I'm assuming Kenny Pickett won't take a step backwards. You know, I don't know how big a step forward he'll take, if any, but I don't. I don't think he's gonna go the wrong way. And with an improved, improved offensive line, they drafted him, an absolute monster at the. Tight end position. I forget his first name, but his last name is Washington. Like 65280 or something and just clearly loves blocking people like it just I watched some highlight videos on him. I just did this dynasty draft and so because it was a a slow draft and we had 24 hours to make a pick. And again most guys did it faster than that. But point was you didn't have to make a snap decision. So what it afforded me the ability to do on a round by round basis. You know when my pick was coming up, when I was like 2 people away from my turn, I'd usually have a narrow down to like three or four guys. And then what I did was, you know, go read about them, watch highlight tapes, you know, see what they were about, check their measurables and their 40 yard dash times and just, you know, kind of make a judgment call, like, OK, I like this guy. And over the course of all that work I came across.
Speaker 3
Washington and he's just a monster, man he loves.
Chris:
He he he loves hitting people and he just loves to block so. You know, they upgraded the offensive line, they got a mauler at tight end to get in there and help them, and then I assume Pickett should be better. So all those things lead to, you know, uptick and Najee Harris when. You could argue it can't get any worse, right? So what the Steelers have looked like offensively for the last two years has been about as bad as it can look. You know, he's had none running room. He gets hit in the backfield all the time. You know, there's no holes available to him. And so he's gotten no help from any of his teammates. And he's still done pretty good, you know. And now if there's any improvement around him, I like his chances for, you know, uptick from where he's been.
Kelly:
So higher flyer. Yeah, you got. Let's have one last flyer flyer, so.
Chris:
Well, there's a few man and and and so. You can never predict injuries and we don't want them. You know, nobody want wants to wish harm on somebody else or anything, but we just know as a matter of fact, it's going to happen. You just don't know where it's going to happen. And So what I try to look for is a a good situation. So you have to have. You know you can't be a specialty guy like JD Mckissick or you know, Giovanni Bernard from, like, throw if you want to throw it back or naheem Hines, you know, I mean, those are like third down backs Jerick McKinnon. I mean, he plays on a great offense and Jerick McKinnon was great last year, but you can't anticipate. Him scoring touchdowns like every time he catches the ball again. Right. So I want to try and find a guy who, if given the opportunity, he could slide in and and maybe take over. There, there's a couple, man. So, tank bigsby. I don't think we know exactly what ETN is. Tank bigsby's dude in Jacksonville. That could be a three down back. If given the opportunity, I think Jacksonville is going to be a much better offense this year. I think coming coming down the stretch last year, man Jack, Jacksonville gave Kansas City all they wanted at Arrowhead in the playoffs last year. You know, they they held tight with them and went score for score with them and and they came on late. They really only have one year in that system. I don't know if Calvin Ridley's gonna be the old Calvin Ridley, but even if he's not, they have a good receiving core anyway. And and if he is Calvin Ridley of old, then they have a great receiving core. And so being the tailback kind of similar to like Cincinnati or Buffalo Man just being the tailback on a team that scores a lot of touchdowns. Just you're just gonna fall backwards into a bunch and so tank Bigsby is kind of a flyer guy. I think the Chicago. Backfield is up for grabs. Deonte Foreman's a guy who's going really late and may just win that job, so Khalil Herbert's kind of the presumed starter. You know, he's the incumbent after. Text his name? The guy's been there. For all those years. I went to, went to Detroit. Wait, can't think of his name off the top of my head. David Montgomery. David Montgomery, left, went to Detroit. And so I think there's an assumption that Khalil Herbert will just take over because he was the backup last year. But Deonte Foreman is not bad, man. He's played on some pretty sorry teams and averaged over 4 yards of carry everywhere. He goes so. He's another late round flyer. You can take a schwack.
Kelly:
So let's switch positions because this position in the NFL always interests me because they kind of do a little bit of everything and that's the tight end. They don't necessarily. I mean this is. To me, where if you can, if you can find one that really gets hot, this can often be a difference maker because a lot of the tight ends, you know, they're middle of the road fantasy point scores, but you find once in a while, you know, whatever a team is doing where they really focus on the tight. And if you can find that guy. It can help get your leg up. I'm not always that great at finding them myself, but I'd like to get your take on the tight end position. And what you're looking for this year?
Chris:
I'm looking for Travis Kelsey. He's in a class all by himself. I mean, you know, you you say. You know one one guy sometimes is head and shoulders above the rest, right? Travis. Kelsey's, like, head and shoulders, waist and knees above the rest. I mean, it is not even close. The gap between #1 and #2 is the biggest of any of the positions out there. You can argue Mahomes, I think collectively, most of us would agree is the is the best quarterback in football. But Josh Allen's not that far behind him. Jalen hurts last year put up fantasy points that were, you know, not that far behind. Right. And and you go position by position, Ted. That's the one where there is no doubt who is number 1 and and who you know who's the king of the mountain and that and. But there's only one Travis Kelsey. So you know someone's going to get him, and you're going to have a positional advantage. Over everybody in the league at that position and you can argue he might be the Most Valuable Player in in all of fantasy football because of that positional advantage. Usually you only start one tight end and Travis Kelsey is going to smoke whoever your tight end is. You know, if you're playing against him almost every week, right? So, but it's a weird. High variance position Kelly, you know, so generally there are so like this year. Travis Kelsey already said I already said enough about Mark Andrews. TJ Hawkinson, those should be really high, high outputs. Steady producers George Kittle on a game by game basis is about as good as you can do, but he is another one similar to Christian McCaffrey, where just the way he plays man and and and just how he chooses to play football always makes him is always going to make him subject to injuries and he. He's gonna miss games, man. He just plays so hard. I love the guy. I think most people do, but yeah, he's just not going to be available for an entire season. Most likely just.
Kelly:
Yeah, that's one of the challenges. I mean, you can't really measure some, some, some things that some guys do are unmeasurable and. That for me, because I've had this guy in a couple of times, but he's an example of something that clearly the statistics don't always show it for how hard he plays and what he gives. And yeah, you're right, you know. You just know he's probably gonna miss about 20 to 30% of the games if you're lucky. Just just the nature of the beast.
Chris:
Yeah, I mean he, you know, I think any team would love to have him. I think he's a great locker room guy. I think he's everything that's good about football, you know, he's a decent human being and and he plays, you know, between the lines. He's not a dirty player at all, but that dude plays hard, man. He's the guy who's down there blocking for wide receivers. He's the guy who takes pride in the team. Aspect of football. He every single play he gives it his all and you know you you can't fault the guy for that and you wouldn't want to take that away. But you know, as a result, like you said, he just misses time and he gets hurt and. And you know, it's unfortunate, but you, you know, I wouldn't. I wouldn't change who he is for it, and I think I don't think the 49ers would either. It's just too bad because on a game by game basis, that guy's a monster. You know, when he's part of the game plan, his fantasy production is on par with with Kelsey. The difference is Kelsey does it every game, every year, and Kittle is is just much more sporadic. So those are the high end guys and then you know after that you get into there's a whole bunch of guys like with upside. So Kyle Pitts, Dallas Scott or Darren Wall or you know, these are guys that can put up huge numbers on a game by game basis, but is are they going to be on the field and are they going to be a part of the game plan? You know, Kyle Pitts is one of the most talented. Signs to come out of college, ever and but he plays for Atlanta. Man, who's going to run the ball 78 * a game. If they had their way. So you know how how? How involved is he going to be, you know? And he's gonna be asked to block quite a bit and he's an amazing receiver, but it's that's not part of the game plan and you know it, it's hard to know, you know, how many, how many targets he's going to be are going to go his way. And then Goddard is another one has a. Lot of there's. A lot of mouths to feed, but. He is a key part on the offense and it should be a high scoring offense, so. And then Darren Waller is another guy who can't seem to stay on the field, but when he is on the field, you know he's a monster, right? And and on a per game basis, he's pretty solid to have, but it's just you, you better have a good backup if you're if you're picking Darren Waller as your tight end because.
Kelly:
You're going to need them. Any real sleeper candidates that you've seen coming out of college or anything in the tight end position?
Chris:
Well, the Packers got one man. So we'll see what their. Luke Musgrave is is is a guy that I mean, he looks the part, you know. But I don't know. I have no idea what the Packers gonna do this year, Kelly. I I know early on they're gonna focus on the run. You know, which last year seemed like a no brainer. Two, you know, they still have two of the better backs in football as far as as far as the tandems concerned. And I think they'll focus on that early. But you know, depending if they're behind in games, depending on what Jordan love looks like. And I mean, there's just a lot of unknowns with the Packers. If they could put it together then I mean, he looks like he's in a good position. It's wide open, man. I mean, there's there's nobody else there, so tanian left and you know, muscular. This is this is your job. If you want it, dude, if you can earn it, you can be the starting tight end for for the Green Bay Packers. So there's no nobody, really. In front of you, brother. And so, you know, if you that would be a deeper league or dynasty league. You know, it's. I don't. I don't think you want to start Luke Musgrave out of the gate. You know, as you're starting tight end in Fantasy Football Week 1. But you know, towards the end of the year potentially, you know he might not be bad man and then you know what's really weird is as you go down. There's like a lot of names, man. They're available late. Dalton Schultz, Tyler Higbee. Gerald Everett. There was a couple more Dawson Knox. You know, these are names that are, like kind of household names over the last 5-6 years. And they're basically available for free at the end of the draft. So you know, if you think one of those old timers still has a little bit left in the tank, then you know you can wait till the very, very end and take a gamble on maybe maybe you pick two of them. And hope one of them pans out, but I I've always firmly believed either you go get a premier. You know, I basically put, I mean we already talked about Kelsey's in the class and stuff you're going to pay for Kelsey. Like you know, he's going in the first round. Dude. It's like Justin Jefferson, Jamar chase, Christian McCaffrey, you know, Stefon Diggs, Tyree kill, you know, some wide receivers, you know, Austin Eckler's in there. And then the Travis. Else, he's like the the number six overall player. I think here I'll tell you right now. 12345. Yeah, he's number six. He's average. His average draft draft position is 6, so you gotta spend a first round pick on a tight end if you want Travis Kelsey. And at our auction, I bet he goes for big money, dude, so maybe not quite as high as like Mahomes, maybe. But or Justin Jefferson. But he's going to be up there and I'm.
Kelly:
Predict that someone in that in our draft will probably spend out of our 200 at least 60 on the.
Chris:
See, I was gonna say like 4042, but you might be right, man. I mean, he's he really is kind of that valuable though, Kelly. Like I said, you know every week, so I'm. So I'm lining up Tyler Higbee and you're lining up Travis Kelsey. Well, the rest of my team better be pretty damn good, cause you're gonna kick my **** at the tight end position. You know Travis Kelsey can go score 4, score 40 points from the tight end position. Nobody else can do that. Man, nobody can put up the kind of games I mean. He can have four touchdown games from the tight end. Lot dude, if you get a touchdown from your tight end, that feels like a win. You know, if you get one and Kelsey's a dude didn't go out. And get 4 so.
Kelly:
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I mean, your typical tight end position you're, you know, probably you're probably generally happy with somewhere. Like I said, I think between I mean 20 points for most tight ends would be an amazing day. You know, 10 probably about average.
Chris:
Yeah, I think you're exactly right, man. I mean, you're you're looking for like 11 to 12 and then you know, you got to make a decision. Do you want Darren Waller? Who can get you 25 or get you 3? Or do you want Mark Andrews, who's going to get you a 15 every week? You know, do you want the the high upside guy or do you want the? Or like a David and Joe Ku, you know, and Joe, who's the guy who probably will have. A couple big weeks, but he's also just not even gonna, you know, he's gonna catch, like, one or two balls a couple of times. As well, so Pat, Pat, Fire Fryer youth who I actually picked in my dynasty league. I picked Pat Fryer mouth as my first tight end. I waited on the position. I didn't want to spend the the high draft capital on the tight end position. I spent it elsewhere and he's a dude that I don't expect. I'd be shocked if he ever gets me 20, so I'll be happy with like a 16 would be awesome from him, but I also don't think he's going to get me below like 9 very often either, right? He's always going to be in that 10 to 12 range every single week. He's going to catch 4 balls for. 40 yards and you know and sprinkle in some touchdowns periodically, maybe four or five of those over the season. If you can get 8 touchdowns on the year, that'd be awesome. I I feel like I knocked out of the park, so I chose to go conservative and steady. Eddy and I took my risks. Other places, you know, with the higher ceiling guys.
Kelly:
Well, Speaking of scoring touchdowns, let's move on to and the way the NFL is geared today, the players that tend to score a lot of them, wide receiver, what are you? What are you looking for there?
Chris:
So this this is. This is always the position I'm I'm. I'm still haven't. So the the league has changed the way fantasy football operates has changed for decades. Man from the guys. I I wasn't doing this back in the 70s, but other people were and you always built your team with running backs always and the wide receivers you just like picked a couple up along the way, you know, and they didn't really matter. That much? Well, now it's different. The NFL is different. It's a passing league now. We've already covered how running backs are devalued and. As a result, fantasy football has followed suit and so now the wide receivers are premium position on average of of 12 picks, eight or nine of them are wide receivers in the first round. So people are going after them early. It's just a different. It's a different age, man. And so if you want the. Premier guy. Is you gotta attack them early in the draft. Obviously the clear cut there. Number one there. I think it's Justin Jefferson. Jamar Chase is nipping at his heels. You can make an argument for cup with Stafford being back. You know, if you think they could rekindle what they had a couple of years ago, Tyree Kill's really good. You know, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, there's a lot of good receivers. But I think clearly Justin Jefferson is is the clear #1. And there's more mouths to feed in in Cincinnati and, you know, clearly, you know, Jefferson's a focal point. I don't know if he'll duplicate last year. I think he had like 1800 yards or something. So he had 184 targets, 128 catches, 18109 yards and eight touchdowns. Scored 304 fantasy. Clients I, I I would. I mean that's just a pretty magical season. I I just the law of averages says like, hey, man, I I don't think he can duplicate that. But I do think he can still be the number one receiver in football, even if he doesn't match those numbers. And so you know I. There's a definite argument to be made to to build your team out of out of water receivers and then just, you know, grab scraps at at running back. There's a couple different draft strategies out there, zero RB hero, RB where you grab one running back. Early and then you just grab a bunch of leftovers at the end of the draft and hope one of them pans out, you know, so you hang your hat, say on Austin Eckler, and then for your running back two spot. You're just hoping. One of these dudes of these five that you picked, you just hope one of them can be decent somehow and and then focus all your draft capital at the wide receiver. Position and try to get 3-4. You know really good wide receivers so it's. A deep, deep. Position man, you know there it's kind of a weird dynamic too, where, you know, depending on the team. So I'd say the Kansas City Chiefs are the best passing offense in football. But they don't have like a true alpha wide receiver. You know they have all these like five guys who take turns week after week after week after week. Now the homes is great, my homes is always the guy throwing it to him, so he's he's money in the bank. But who's going to be the receiver who catches it outside of Kelsey, who's very consistent? The from the wide receiver position? You don't have one. And then other teams have, like Atlanta has a Drake, London. He's he's the guy. So they have Kyle Pitts at the tight end position, but from a a wide receiver position. You know they have one true alpha on the team. Minnesota is kind of like that too, with Justin Jefferson. Like Justin Jeffries is the alpha and then the number two might be Jordan Addison, who they picked up. He's a rookie this year. Could be KJ Osborne again, feelings gone. So feeling used to be the number 2, but so they have like one true. Any team that Devante Adams is ever on, Devante Adams is the alpha and then everyone else is just like fighting for scraps. You know, in terms of targets and touchdowns and everything else. But then you have teams like the Eagles, who have A.J. Brown and Devante Adams, or you have teams like the Dolphins, who have Tyree kill and Jaylen Waddle, and even the Bengals with Chase and and T Higgins. You know Chase is is a gets a notch up but Higgins is perfectly capable as a wide receiver too, so. You know, it's do. Do you take a guy who's maybe second on his team because he's, but he's still better than the one on another team? You know what I mean? And so, man, I hate taking the guy who's not even the best receiver on his team. But you know, it's in an offense that plans on throwing the ball a lot, so you know, and if you want to do that. A lot of times you gotta spend like a second round pick or you, you know, in our league, maybe you gotta spend 3035. Bucks on a guy who's not even the best player on his team.
Kelly:
I think it's one of the. It's a tough position because. There is a lot of a lot of players out there. But due to the nature of how the NFL is, you're typically. Where it really hurts you is if your guy gets hurt, man. You have a lot of capital racked up in the guy, and if he gets hurt, it's sometimes hard to replace that guy.
Chris:
Ohh for sure you know Jamar Chase gets served, man. You're you're. You're not replacing him, dude. Like there there's or you know, Patrick Mahomes gets hurt, man. Like you're there's there's no replacement available like you know you you hung your hat on him. You spent a lot of draft capital. You picked him in the first round or you pick you pick. You spent a lot of money on him. And you'd have to get pretty lucky to to try and replace production on on key players. That's part of fantasy football, man. That's real life football too, dude. You know, that's that's how it goes, man. You lose your starting quarterback. You're hoes, bro. You know, that's just that's reality, man. Like, tough break.
Kelly:
So you got any sleeper candidates you're looking at in the wide receiver core?
Speaker 3
You know, it's funny. So yes, but man, this is the one. So so.
Chris:
Because wide receivers are so deep. You know, you know how it goes in our league. So not. And this is every auction draft all across the ports. So what happens is, you know, a lot of the big names goes every once in a while, like a big name might hang around till the middle part of the draft. But by the time you get to the end of the draft, Patrick Mahomes isn't still available. Dude, you know what I mean? He he's gone, you know. Josh Allen's gone. You know, Justin Jefferson's gone. These guys are gone, man. So at the end of the draft, what ends up happening is you have this weird mix of guys who like, probably should be like not drafted at all or or barely make the cut. But you also have like all these middle guys who probably aren't, aren't that much worse. I'll give you, like, a a chunk. OK, so let's say. In this area. We got. Deonte Johnson, Chris Godwin, Marquis Brown, Tyler Lockett, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, Jordan Addison this is a whole chunk OK from ADP. 56 to ADP 73 I just named OK and then after that is Gabe Davis. George Pickens, Quinton. So this whole chunk of players. I'll give you the names that are right above them. OK, so I gave you Deonte Johnson. Chris Godwin. Tyler Lockett. Right above them is Mike Williams, DJ Moore, Christian Kirk, Brandon Ayuk, Terry Mclaurin's in there, and so is DeAndre Hopkins, new to Tennessee? Well, the fall off between Tyler. Lockett and Christian Kirk, they they're kind of the same dude, man, you don't know which one is going to be better. Right there. There's they're really close. And so as nominations happen. I I don't know who's gonna get nominated, you know, might be Tyler Lockett or might might be Brandon on you or Christian Kirk, but but some of them aren't going to be nominated. And So what happens at the end of the drafts, especially at the wide, wide receiver position, is everyone's out of money, everyone's broke and but there's still some good dudes left. You know what I mean? That just hadn't gotten named yet. You know, they just haven't come up. But everyone, everybody spent all their. Money. And so now they everyone's sitting on like $18.00. But there's players that are available that are probably 20-30 dollar players, but. No one's got 20 bucks and they gotta fill out their roster so that their Max bid is 7. So even though it's a $25 player, just by luck of the draw, his name hasn't come up yet. And so you can get them for 7 bucks, because that's all the money we got leftover. You know, they're in the bargain bin and.
Kelly:
So I won't force you to give your.
Chris:
So I got some sleepers bro.
Speaker 3
But I don't want to give them.
Chris:
Up because I know this is the one position that I can ****** up some some pretty good dudes for cheap.
Kelly:
Here's what I here's what I've noticed about our drafts, and you and I think you hinted at your strategy. A lot of times you're one of the guys with more money leftover. And so you kind of are sitting back and. You get, you get and I'm almost the opposite. I we've talked about this off air. I tend to spend a lot of my money early. You seem like you sit back a little bit and you're one of those guys who can typically call your shots at the end a little more, and I've seen you pick up. You know, players where people are like, wow, that guy's still available and you got him for 7 bucks.
Chris:
Yeah, I don't mind sharing that. That's that. That is my draft strategy, Kelly. And so, you know, I've had to pass on a couple of guys that I really wanted, you know, a really good player comes up at the end of the draft and he's going for $1314.00. He's a $30 player and you know, Uncle Tom's about to get him for 13. Bucks, but I know there's so much value at the end of the draft, I want to be able to say 3 or $4.00 because I might get a $20. I might get $320 dudes. For 10, for the 10 bucks I got leftover or, you know, as opposed to spending the 20 right now on one guy, I would rather get three that maybe aren't as good as this guy, but I get three of them, you know. And so that is that absolutely is my draft strategy when I start running out of money, I always want to have a little bit of money left over. Just because I've I've done a lot of drafts, man, I'm pretty experienced at this. I know how it goes and I just know the value you can get at the end. And if you if you pass on a couple dudes that maybe you wanted them, but if you let them go, then you might be able to get five guys for that same money. And So what ends up happening is I I have pretty talented guys on my bench right from go because I was able, you know, this is what happens at the end of the draft. You say a dollar you only. So one at a time, we all become one dollar guys, right? We spend all our money. And for the rest of the draft, we only have a buck to spend on every player. Well, when you nominate a do. You got a new name for a dollar, and if that's your Max bid, anyone can say 2 and and that guy's gone and it puts. You in a ****** spot because you have to.
Speaker 3
You want to try and pick a.
Chris:
Guy that. You want but. You, but you also want to get them. And if someone else wants them, then you don't get them and you would have been better off not. Nominating them at all just put you in a terrible. Spot where you're trying to like, sort of nominate a guy you want, but but not really. And as I I just don't want to be in that spot, so I just want to leave like. You know, 10 bucks for the end. If someone else nominates the guy I want, then I can say 2 bucks and take him. So that is my draft strategy.
Kelly:
Well, the other part about being a $1.00 guy is, hey, I love the guy I love the draft and it's always a lot of camaraderie. And you know all that. But when you're a $1.00 guy, it gets pretty boring because you're seeing me.
Chris:
You gotta wait for seven dudes to nominate, and then you get your turn and you say you know whoever. Romeo Dobbs $1.00 and then just says 2 bucks. And now you gotta wait for seven more guys to go and then try it again. And they say Michael Gallup $1.00 and then Nope, 2 bucks. OK, seven more guys you'd already be in. Meanwhile, you know, an hour and a half. And by and you haven't picked. Up a single player.
Kelly:
So you write down your sleeper picks and after our draft, we'll revisit that or see how they were at the and let's go. So you know, there's a guy that makes this all run the quarterback. What are you looking for in quarterbacks in fantasy football?
Chris:
So in our league, it's going to be. So we're a Super Flex league as I alluded to earlier. So we're all gonna want to quarterbacks generally you know, I mean everyone knows they score the most points. But they all scored the most points, so even your Desmond Ritters and Jared Goff don't suck. Even Jared Goff scores a lot of points, so the variance be I've always been a weight on quarterback guy. That's always been my draft strategy and when we when we went to Super Flex in this league, I changed my MO. A little. Bit and I I said. Alright, you know, if I if I feel like I get a good deal on a premium quarterback then then I will spend for one. But I'm never gonna spend for two, right? So I'm gonna find a cheap my guy for years and years was Matt Ryan. No one ever wanted them. I get him for like 5 bucks at the end of the draft and he was a perfectly good quarterback. You know, he'd finished like 11th or 13th or whatever. And I was like, I'm cool with that. I got all these. Other stacked guys that running back and wide receiver. And I didn't spend my money on quarterback, but I got a perfectly serviceable guy. He won the MVP one year and then I never got Matt Ryan again, so I've had to pivot to different dudes. But my strategy at quarterback when it comes to fantasy is just just wait, you know, look for value. You know, this year might be a little bit different for me, man. So for me, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are are a clear like level up from everybody. Jalen hurts, you get all that rushing you get those touchdowns, you know you get all that that nice floor. You know he's always going to run for some yardage. I think he may. Scale back a little bit this. Here, but yeah, it's always going to be part of his game, man. He's never going to be Lamar Jackson, but he's always going to run. Dude, he's going to run for 50 yards a game every game, and occasionally, you know, he's going to run more. Even more than that, and get 80 or 90 yards rushing in some games. You know, if you breaks off a long one, he's always going to get rushing touchdowns. So he has a nice. Floor that comes from his rushing and he's actually developed into a pretty good passer and then we know who Patrick Mahomes is. I mean already one of the one of the best of all time in my mind. And then Josh Allen also, you know a premium high scoring gives you a rushing floor and and passing offense. So all three of those guys are premium. I would anticipate having to pay for them. I will try to get them, but you know, once we reach a number that doesn't fit with the rest of my team build, I'll be out. And then after that, there's a whole group of dudes that Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrell, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, and I would even throw Trevor Lawrence into that my opinion. Trevor Lawrence. You know, I I think he progresses. And so now you have, that's 12345. That's 6 more dudes. In the in the next group of guys and so ideally you would try to if you didn't get one of the premium guys then you would try to get you know one of these guys or even two of them, you know potentially 2 guys like a Justin Herbert and the Joe Burrow. That'd be pretty. That'd be a pretty sweet quarterback tandem. You know, if you, if you're willing to spend. That money to get those two. Good luck getting that. But I mean, it's it's not impossible, man. I mean, cause Justin, you know, like we already said, Kelsey, someones gonna spend 60 bucks on him, right? Somebody you know, you don't know where people are gonna spend their money.
Kelly:
Yeah, I know. I mean it's you never know how it's going to go down, man.
Chris:
So, but then as you get deeper, there's a pretty significant fall off, you know, at the back end of the draft, you know, you know, there's some older like value guys, Iron Rogers, you could probably get, I don't know about in our league you might be able to get them for a bag of chips that you know I don't know how everyone feels about him. You know, after leaving the Packers and going to The Jets, so you know, maybe everyone just gives him the finger and won't take him.
Kelly:
Well, however, they feel it's probably even more when he gave back $35 million so.
Chris:
You know, you got Kurt Cousins, Aaron Rodgers. You know, I'm not a Russell Wilson guy, so I'm out on him. But Russell Wilson, you know Derek Carr, some serviceable Matthew Stafford supposed to be healthy and good to go. So some old guys who are still serviceable, you know, I mean, they, they're they're they were good quarterbacks. Once they might, you know, have another year in them and then you have a bunch of young guys, man, you know, Jordan love, who knows what he's going to be? Kenny, pick it. Whoever plays quarterback for the 49er. It looks like Brock Purdy, I think he has the inside track. Everything says he's healthy. That's gonna be a really good offense. And Brock Birdie was a really nice fantasy quarterback last year, so you know it's a small sample, but he's got Deebo, Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, you know, Christian McCaffrey catches a lot of balls with the quarterback, still gets points for that. You know, so. You know, he's got a pretty talent, Brandon on you. He's really good, man. They got a really good offense, so it's just a matter of trying to guess who you think is going to be quarterback for that team and then a couple of long shots like Anthony Richardson's really interesting, super talented with the ball in his hands. You know very Lamar Jackson Esque or or throw it back to Michael Vick. You know he he can run man, he's he's talented runner. So and and I don't see any reason why the Colts would not use him in that fashion. Be silly not to so. He's another guy who has a really high floor based on just his running man. Dude might run for 100 yards a game, you know, and they just say screw it, you know, but you just run it, bro. And you know, we'll build an offense around that with Jonathan Taylor and you, we'll do a lot of read options and you know, we'll just, we'll just be a running football team and our quarterbacks going to be. One of the guys who's doing it and then, you know, he's never gonna throw for 0 yards, right. So he's gonna get some passing and he's not gonna get 0 passing touchdowns on the year. So I think whatever you get in terms of passing is just kind of a bonus. But he's a dude who should, even though he's a rookie and and has a lot of he might not even start. In a way, but it's those those high floor guys, the guys who can run and will run. They're really nice, man because you know, they just never lay an egg, dude. You know, you you always get, you know, 50-60 yards rushing and and a touchdown out of them. It's like, well, I'm starting pretty good. So whatever you did throwing the ball, you know, just gravy. On top anyway.
Kelly:
Well, and we won't really go into kickers because there are. Important you know what's interesting is if you look at the salaries of kickers, they have actually gone up in the NFL. But I mean, as far as fantasy football, really, most kickers ever one as good as another.
Chris:
And it's so hit and miss, man. I mean there, there have been awesome fantasy kickers on terrible teams. There have been awesome fantasy kickers on great teams, great offenses. You know, it's it's just so random. You know, and then the guy kicks it 49 yards and it's worth 4 points. The guy kicks it 50 yards and it's worth 5, you know? And there's just so much randomness to the position. I mean, I don't mind having it as a roster spot. It it's like a it's like a a wild card position. There's definitely better guys. You know, Justin Tucker has been one of the greatest kickers in fantasy history. He's very consistent. They use them, they trust him. You know, there's there's guys who are better, but in all honesty, man, I mean, you could have a team that's, you know, 4:00 and 10:00. And the kicker could be in the top five in in fantasy scoring, you know, I mean, it's just it's so hard to pinpoint.
Kelly:
Oh yeah. I know our family draft. Like I said, it's coming up in a little over three weeks. Any last minute thoughts on fantasy football, Chris?
Chris:
No, I mean, anyone who hasn't played before, I I encouraged you to at least look into it. It sure makes the season a lot more fun. And like I said, you know, I, I I invest pretty heavily in, in, in fantasy football annually. And and I've been fortunate to to mostly be successful. I enjoy it a lot. I only manage a couple of teams, though. You know the rest, I I might draft a lot of teams, but I, but I only manage a couple. You know, if you find a group of friends that that enjoy football. You know, just pick a number. You guys like, man, play for 20 bucks each or something, you know, whatever. Whatever you're comfortable doing, but it definitely brings a added level of interest to to the season. You know, most of us have a team we root for, for you and I we both root for the Packers, you know, by week 10, sometimes your teammate doing so high. And you know, interest in the season starts to dwindle and fantasy football is a great way to you. You know, be able to stay interested in in what's happening on the field, and it just adds another dynamic.
Kelly:
I find it's a good diversion, especially like if your team, like you said, it's not doing so hotter, just gets you to look around the league a little bit more and appreciate what other teams are doing and player. So you know I'm a I enjoy it.
Chris:
Yeah, and and for us. You know it's it's literally like Christmas for me, man. Draft day with the family is annually right up there, man. It might be my favorite day of the year, so getting together with you and your brothers and and you know it just the day itself is just so enjoyable, man. I mean, we just, we do, we just laugh all day. You know, we're competing against each other, which is fun. And you know, I, you know, you have to battle to to get the guys I want and and being an auction makes it really fun. And what's what's cool dynamic for us is. You know there there's a lot of poker involved, man, you know. I mean, there's, there's, there's a lot of, like bluffing and, you know, we know who we like, you know, Uncle Scott had Matt Stafford on his team for 10 years.
Kelly:
Oh yeah.
Chris:
You know, my dad had Jason Jason Witten on his team, you know, every year for a long time. I'm off him now, but for every year for a long time, Alvin Kamara was my guy, you know? I love me some. Alvin Kamara, and we're going to the draft. Everybody knows that. And so, you know, I gotta pay an upcharge if I want to get Alvin tomorrow because they know I'll, I'll go another buck. I might go. I might go a bunch of more bucks. Who knows? You know what I mean. And and. And, but you know, eventually the day came when I was off Alvin Kamara. And you know, it just makes for a cool dynamic, man. Where, like oh, you know, is he going to get him again? I don't really want him, but I want to make him pay. And so, you know, do do.
Speaker 3
I bid a.
Chris:
Dollar and risk, you know spending. $54 just is making him spend 55 or what? If he what if he quits bidding, you know? And so the whole. From morning all the way through the draft is just such a cool, fun experience. And you know, that's something that fun is fantasy football. Well, has done for us and our family. It's brought us together. It gives us a reason to get together. We've rotated locations. We've been in Vegas a couple of times. You know we've we've been at at different peoples houses, different times and it it brings us together for a day of common interest and and you know it's it never disappoints.
Kelly:
I know it's one of my favorite days of the year just to hang out and really it's just. You know, through the camaraderie and then just a little bit of, you know, healthy competition and. You know, cause again, it's this. This is a family fun league, but just always back and forth with whoever throughout the year, so. Always a lot of.
Chris:
Yeah, for sure, man. And I'm looking forward to it again. And you know, I got my. I'll, I'll put my list together for you, buddy. I got. My but well actually I got it pretty easily dude. So what I do, I don't know how you guys all do it. This is something this is information I don't mind giving away either. When I show up to the draft, I have a single piece of paper. So I've already done all my research. I call it the master list and I have a master list that probably dates back to the early 2000s, so I've changed computers. And and so I've had to like, you know, redo my Excel program and stuff. So it's not all on one computer anymore, but. So every year I I just, you know, I rank my quarterbacks based on injury risk upside you know. And it doesn't follow like the list that CBS puts out or Sports Illustrated, or whoever you use to print out your list on I I do my own list. And you know, I move guys up like a lot. Sometimes if there's a guy I really want and he might be #5 on my list. But in terms of what everyone else thinks he might be #16. You know and but I, but I make my list ahead of time I have. I have it ready and then I show up to the draft with a single piece of paper. The quarterbacks are all listed. This is the order I'll take them in. You know, if they become available, you know and and I do that for running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and this is that's how I set up before I go to the draft I show up with one piece of paper and you know circle my guys as I get them and I cross them out as I don't and it makes it really clean and easy for me and and it throws me off a little bit. Because I don't know where everyone else has them ranked. You know? Because because I I have jumbled the order like I don't know what guys where they might be basically you know if if Scott printed off from CBS and Craig printed printed out from ESPN actually my ohh man does it from a magazine. Which is like so 1997. He he buys a magazine at, like, Walgreens, and he drafts his team out of a magazine that might have been freaking published in May. And that guy kills it every year at the draft. I do not know how he does it, but he drafts a good team almost every single year, and he has the most like old antiquated approach towards the draft. But it works for him. It's how he does it. That's what he likes. He's got a highlighter and A and a sharpie, and that's how he does it. But yeah, my my draft. I I've already done all the homework that I'm going to do. And I show up, you know, just with, like I said, with single piece paper. And these are the guys I like. So when when we're all done with the draft Kelly, I'll give, I'll give you my my master list and and you can kind of see how I ranked them personally and we'll see how they do.
Kelly:
Alright, well I got a little homework to do. Get ready for that draft and I was always glad we caught up again, Chris. And I'm sure we'll be. Speaking regularly throughout the season, still working on lining up some guests as well, but good to catch up, buddy.
Chris:
Yeah, always, Kelly man. Always love these talks, bud.
Kelly:
All right. Thanks everyone for listening to another edition of the podcast to be named later.